Winter US Hog Inventory Likely Smallest in Five Years – 11/27/2022
We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1 at 73 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2016. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted a possible upturn in the hog inventory cycle. The December 2022 Hogs and Pigs report is scheduled for release on December 23.
| US Hog Balance September/November Million head | |||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Percent | |
| September 1 | 78.6 | 78.1 | 74.9 | 73.8 | 99% |
|
Sept./Nov. Pig Crop
|
35.5 | 35.0 | 34.1 | 33.3 | 98% |
| Net Imports | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | |
| Supply | 115.3 | 114.4 | 110.7 | 108.5 | |
| Slaughter | 33.9 | 34.8 | 32.8 | 32.5 | 99% |
| Residual | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | |
| December 1 | 78.2 | 76.4 | 75.0 | 73.0 | 97% |
| 2022 Our Estimate Auumes USDA Sows Farrowing Forecast published in September. | |||||
| Residual includes Death Loss and Statistical Discrepancy | |||||
The hog/corn price ratio provides a simple gauge of hog production profitability. The ratio this autumn has been on the low side of recent history.