winter cattle market

Last month the USDA forecast the first quarter domestic per capita beef supply at 19.5 pounds which is a slight increase from the previous year. The accompanying scatter study uses the per capita supply as barometer and average price of steers at Omaha as the dependent variable.

In December USDA forecast the first quarter price at $122/cwt. compared to $125 last winter. February cattle futures closed at $127 on January 6, 2020.

February cattle futures have rallied $12 since mid fall. The easy part of the potential winter rally is over. But strong economic activity might boost beef demand sufficiently to keep the positive price trend going.