Weather Market for Soybean Futures – 06/21/2023
Dry weather in the Midwest and Delta has jumped started the soybean futures market. The mid June US soybean crop rating from USDA was 54% good or excellent compared to the preceding 30-year average of 65% in the comparable week. Based on experience in the past a rating exceeding at least 60% by mid August is needed to reach the USDA’s June yield forecast of 52 bushels per harvested acre.
We have calculated the accompanying table which associates variation in yield with the expected summer through harvest price range for November soybeans. Note November soybeans are already trading over the forecast range indicating soybean futures traders are already pricing in at least some damage to the crop relative to USDA’s June US national average yield forecast.
| November Soybeans (Mid Summer through Contract expiration) $/Bu. | |||
| High | Low | Yield + -USDA June Bu./Harvested Acre | |
| $19.3 | $13.6 | -2.5 | |
| $17.0 | $12.3 | -2.0 | |
| $15.4 | $11.4 | -1.5 | |
| $14.2 | $10.7 | -1.0 | |
| $13.3 | $10.1 | -0.5 | |
| $12.6 | $9.7 | 0.0 | USDA June |
| $11.9 | $9.3 | 0.5 | |
| $11.4 | $9.0 | 1.0 | |
| Price Forecasts assume USDA’s June new & old crop usage estimates. | |||