USDA’s Soybean oil price forecast – 11/16/2020

The USDA forecast the average price of soybean oil at Central Illinois processors for October 2020 through September 2021 at 34 cents per pound this month roughly 4 cents under current near by futures quotes. We have scattered the winter/spring high and low for cash soybean oil as a function of the USDA’s November average prices forecast. Both studies have respectable R2 statistics. The high study suggests a maximum price for soybean oil prices in the mid 40’s. At some point in the forecast period soybean oil could be expected to drop back to near 30 cents.

These scatters are association studies and not cause and effect, but they do provide a useful price guide based on USDA’s current price analysis.

Note that the points marked in red are current market levels and USDA’s November forecast.