USDA”s June planted area survey suggests larger US wheat Carryout
USDA published relatively moderate changes to US wheat planted area estimates reflecting the June acreage survey. We have calculated the following wheat production table based on the June survey and the US wheat yield potential based on the weekly crop progress report.
| US Wheat Planted 000 acres, Production Million Bushels | ||||
| US Wheat Planted 000 acres | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Winter | 30,450 | 33,678 | 33,271 | 37,005 |
| O Spring | 12,310 | 11,420 | 10,835 | 11,140 |
| Durum | 1,690 | 1,635 | 1,632 | 1,483 |
| Total | 44,450 | 46,733 | 45,738 | 49,628 |
| Harvested | ||||
| Winter | 23,024 | 24,612 | 23,459 | 25,700 |
| O Spring | 12,095 | 10,165 | 10,440 | 10,595 |
| Durum | 1,665 | 1,534 | 1,581 | 1,427 |
| Total | 36,784 | 36,311 | 35,480 | 37,722 |
| Yield Bushels | ||||
| Winter | 51 | 52 | 47 | 46 |
| O. Spring | 49 | 33 | 46 | 45 |
| Durum | 42 | 24 | 40 | 41 |
| Total | 50 | 45 | 47 | 46 |
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Production Million Bushels
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| Winter | 1,171 | 1,277 | 1,104 | 1,182 |
| O Spring | 588 | 331 | 482 | 477 |
| Durum | 69 | 37 | 64 | 58 |
| Total | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,717 |
| 2023 based on June area estimate and late spring yield potential | ||||
Working through the US wheat supply/usage balance, our production estimate would result in a larger US wheat 2023/2024 carryout than USDA forecast last month, assuming usage estimates are held constant at the June WASDE estimate. Our US wheat production forecast would result in a modestly larger carryout than the USDA projected last month.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | ||||
| Crop Years | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/2024 Projected | 2023/2024 revised |
| Planted | 46.7 | 45.7 | 49.9 | 49.6 |
| Harv. | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 37.7 |
| Yield | 44.3 | 46.5 | 44.9 | 45.5 |
| Carryin | 845 | 698 | 598 | 598 |
| Prod | 1646 | 1650 | 1665 | 1717 |
| Imports | 95 | 125 | 135 | 135 |
| Supply | 2587 | 2473 | 2399 | 2450 |
| Food | 972 | 975 | 977 | 977 |
| Seed | 58 | 70 | 65 | 65 |
| Feed | 59 | 55 | 70 | 70 |
| Domestic | 1088 | 1100 | 1112 | 1112 |
| Exports | 800 | 775 | 725 | 725 |
| Total | 1888 | 1875 | 1837 | 1837 |
| Carryout | 698 | 598 | 562 | 613 |
| Carryout %use | 37.0% | 31.9% | 30.6% | 33.4% |
| USDA 06/09/2023 – 2023/2024 revised Our production estimate based on late June Conditions | ||||
We note that USDA projected US wheat imports at 175 million bushels, which would be large compared to recent imports but in line with shipments in the mid-2010s crop years. The bulk of US wheat imports originate from Canada. USDA estimates the 2023 Canadian wheat crop will be 37 million metric tonnes, compared to 34 million tonnes in 2022. The Canadian wheat crop estimate is about 80% as large as the US crop.
December Chicago wheat would likely trade under $6.00 based on our current US wheat supply/usage balance projection.