USDA Tightens US Corn Supply/Usage Outlook
The USDA’s January US Corn Supply/Usage was considerably tighter than that published at harvest. The US corn yield was reduced from the November forecast by almost 4 bushels per acre which is the largest in the 2000s.USDA also reduced the corn feed/residual and export estimates for crop year 2024/2025.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | |||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/2024 | |
| 1/10/25 | 1/10/25 | Percent | |||
| Area Planted | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 91 | -4.2% |
| Area Harvested | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 83 | -4.2% |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179 | 1.1% |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 29.6% |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | -3.1% |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | -10.7% |
| Supply, Total | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | |
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,804 | 5,775 | -0.5% |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,869 | 6,890 | 0.3% |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 0.4% |
| Domestic, Total | 12,427 | 12,044 | 12,673 | 12,665 | -0.1% |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,450 | 6.9% |
| Use, Total | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,115 | 1.0% |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,540 | -12.6% |
| Carryout/Usage* | 15% | 17% | 19% | 16% | |
| Farm Price | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.25 | -6.6% |
| January 2025 USDA data. *Carryout % FSI + Exports | |||||
The accompanying scatter studies display the winter/spring high and low for May corn as a function of the ratio of US corn carryout stocks to crop year usage (excluding feed & residual disappearance). The described ratio calculates to 16% for 2024/2025 compared to 24% last year. We use USDA’s spring forecast as our independent variable.
We have plugged in the close for May corn on 01/10/2025 in both the high and low scatters to fill in 2025 and get an idea of the current status. The USDA’s January corn S/D report suggests a high above $6.00 and a low near the 01/10/2025 close of $4.80..
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