USDA Stays with old Crop Soybean Balance
USDA did not make any changes to the 2024/25 US soybean balance table this month. USDA did revise down the 2025 Argentine soybean crop by three million tonnes but left the Brazilian crop unchanged. The aggregate South American (Brazil, Argentina & Paraguay) 2025 soybean crop (harvest of which will run through the next two months) is expected to total almost double the size of last summer’s US soybean crop. US and South American soybean farmers are fortunate that huge Chinese soybean imports relieve much of the pressure from large soybean supplies. Otherwise soybean prices at farm level would sink well into the single digits.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | |||||
| 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | 2025/26 | Percent | |
| Area Planted | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 85.0 | -2% |
| Area Harvested | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 84.2 | -2% |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 52.5 | 4% |
| Beginning Stocks | 274 | 264 | 342 | 380 | |
| Production | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 4,420 | 1% |
| Imports | 25 | 21 | 20 | 15 | |
| Supply, Total | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,729 | 4,815 | |
| Crushings | 2,212 | 2,287 | 2,410 | 2,475 | 3% |
| Exports | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 | 1,885 | 3% |
| Seed | 75 | 78 | 78 | 75 | -4% |
| Residual | 39 | 45 | 36 | 35 | |
| Use, Total | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,349 | 4,470 | 3% |
| Ending Stocks | 264 | 342 | 380 | 345 | -9% |
| % Use | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.10 | $11.52 | 14% |
| USDA ,February 2025 Data | |||||
The US soybean supply/usage balance for next season could be interesting should adverse weather hold the national average soybean yield under the USDA’s trendline forecast for a record in 2025. For example, if the 2025 national average soybean yield averaged the same as in 2024, and all other USDA baseline forecasts held constant, the US soybean carryover would drop to less than 200 million bushels.
However, classic soybean bull markets occur when it appears the soybean carryover will be negative and price must increase sharply to ration soybean crush and exports. That probably won’t occur next summer unless the Corn Belt and Delta suffer a 2012 type drought. In 2012 the soybean crop condition index was only about half the 40 year average and less than half conditions as reported by USDA in 2024.
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