USDA Soybean Price outlook @ Farm level. 10/13/2020

The USDA forecast the average soybean to the farmer at $9.80 during the 2020/21 season compared to $8.55 last season. To put the price forecast in perspective we set the average farm price as a function of the carryout to crop year usage ratio. In the October WAOB report the USDA projected  the 2020/21 US soybean carryout  at 290 million bushels or 6% of crush + exports + seed usage.

Note that a 6% ratio could support an average farm soybean price between $10 & $12 per bushel.  Crop problems in South America this winter (austral summer) would likely shift the carryout ratio barometer to the left and result in farmers enjoying soybeans in the low teens.