USDA Reports Suggests Change in US New Crop Wheat Stocks – 4/1/2024
USDA’ March Planting Intentions survey found US wheat farmers planning to reduce planted area this year. The reduction was confined to winter wheat which was seeded last autumn. Spring wheat area may expand modestly, but not enough to make up for the winter wheat decline.
We have calculated a US wheat supply/usage balance for 2024/25 using USDA’s baseline US wheat forecasts, substituting the March planting data. Note that working through the table results in a minor increase in US wheat carryout stocks in 2025 and a fractional reduction in the US wheat carryout to usage ratio.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | |||||
| Crop Years | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/2024 est | 2024/2025 Proj |
| Planted | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 47.5 |
| Harv. | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 | 37.0 |
| Yield | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 49.5 |
| Carryin | 1028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 673 |
| Prod | 1828 | 1646 | 1650 | 1812 | 1832 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 145 | 120 |
| Supply | 2956 | 2588 | 2446 | 2527 | 2625 |
| Food | 961 | 971 | 973 | 960 | 978 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 64 | 62 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 77 | 120 | 110 |
| Domestic | 1117 | 1117 | 1118 | 1144 | 1150 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 759 | 710 | 800 |
| Total | 2111 | 1913 | 1876 | 1854 | 1950 |
| Carryout | 845 | 674 | 570 | 673 | 675 |
| Farm $/Bu. | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $7.15 | $6.80 |
| Carryout%use | 40.0% | 35.2% | 30.4% | 36.3% | 34.6% |
| Based on USDA Data Available 3/31/2024 | |||||
USDA has forecast A $6.80 average farm wheat price next season which is under this season’s; $7.10 estimate, but well above current Chicago (Soft red) and Kansas city (hard red winter) new crop wheat futures price quotes. New crop hard spring wheat is trading at a premium to winter wheat, but still at a slight discount to USDA;s price forecast.
The US 2024/25 wheat supply/usage balance will need to tighten to generate a major price rally in new crop wheat futures contracts. However, the season is just underway and there is plenty of time for crop problems or other bullish forces to develop. On the Bearish side, USDA’s new crop US wheat export projection is optimistic compared to recent trends.