USDA Projects Tight Beef Market Through 2025
USDA has forecast a 1% drop in US beef production in 2024 and an additional 3% decline in 2025. The need to restock the beef herd by holding back heifers for herd replacement accounts for the expected decline in beef production.
We have constructed a US beef supply/usage balance based on USDA data. The scatter charts accompanying the balance table uses the projected per capita domestic supply as the independent variable and USDA’s projected Midwest finished steer prices (adjusted for inflation) as the dependent variable. Note that the 2025 price forecast is on the low side compared to the historical data in 2023 and partially estimated data in 2024. The beef supply/demand – finished steer price function existing in years prior to 2022 would be reestablished based on the USDA’s 2025 deliverable steer price forecast. An 2025 average price for Midwest steers above $190 seems more likely assuming USDA’s supply projection.
| US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds) | |||||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 716 | 676 | 723 | 638 | 585 | ||
| Production | 28,007 | 28,358 | 27,032 | 26,662 | 25,784 | -1% | -3% |
| Imports | 3,375 | 3,391 | 3,727 | 4,171 | 3,768 | 12% | -10% |
| Exports | 3,447 | 3,536 | 3,038 | 2,818 | 2,707 | -7% | -4% |
| End Stocks | 676 | 723 | 638 | 585 | 517 | -8% | -12% |
| Per Cap Supply | 58.9 | 59.1 | 58.1 | 58.3 | 55.4 | 0% | -5% |
| Finish Cattle $ | $122 | $144 | $176 | $184 | $185 | 5% | 1% |
| USDA May 2024 Data | |||||||
Note we use the price index for US Personal Consumption (excluding food and energy) as our inflation adjustment and have assumed a 3% inflation rate through 2025.