USDA Pork Forecasts for 2024 & 2025 – April 16, 2024

USDA expects US  pork production to increase 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. US pork imports are expected to increase 5% in 2024 and decline 1% in 2025. US pork exports, which have been much larger than imports in recent years, are expected to increase 8% this year and decline 1% in 2025. Data quoted were published in WASDE for April 2024 and the Baseline report released in the winter of 2024.

USDA forecasts hog prices at farm level. In the last 28 years the annual high at CME futures level has had an R2 of 90% and a standard  error of  $6/ Cwt. The same study of the  CME lows. versus the  farm level average has an R2 of 85% and standard error of $6/hundredweight.

The calculated least squares equation for the annual high (CME lean hog futures contracts) is 1.44 x farm price plus 12.4.

The calculated equation for the annual low (CME futures lean hog contracts)  is 1.11 x farm price minus 2.8

The current USDA farm level live hog forecast  would  calculate an annual high CME lean hog  projection of $101 and an annual low projection of $67 for 2024 and a range of  $108 for the high and $70 for the low in 2025. The annual high would most often occur in the summer CME lean hog contracts and the low in the late autumn CME contracts.  .  

USDA is scheduled to release the first WASDE data for 2025 on May 10, 2024. Of course this report may revise forecast data for 2024, but revisions for 2024 likely will be minor as in April USDA analysts had the latest US hog inventory survey (March) data available.