USDA more optimistic than Futures Market on fall steers – 09/14/2021

In the September WAOB report the USDA forecast 4th quarter finished steers (Nebraska) would average $131/hundredweight compared the current October  futures quote near $122 and December futures of $127. The accompanying scatter study displays the October/December average price for finished steers as a function of domestic per capita beef supply during the same period. Note that USDA’s forecast (marked in red) is high on the scatter. USDA analysts are taking into account the very strong export market for cattle hides which has added more than six dollar per hundredweight to finished cattle values since last autumn. China is a major market for cattle hides.

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