USDA Latest Soybean Balance ‘normal weather’ Forecast Bearish
- The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its prospective soybean supply/usage balance for the 2023/2024 marketing year.
- The balance shows that the United States is expected to produce a record soybean crop of 4.5 billion bushels.
- This is up 200+ million bushels from the previous year and would be a record crop.
- The increase in production assumes average summer weather conditions.
| US Soybean Balance S/D Million acres Bushels | ||||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | |
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 87.5 |
| Area Harvested | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 86.7 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.5 | 52.0 |
| Beginning Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 215 |
| Imports | 13 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 20 | 20 |
| Supply, Total | 4761 | 4738 | 4571 | 4745 |
| Crushings | 2141 | 2204 | 2220 | 2310 |
| Exports | 2266 | 2158 | 2015 | 1975 |
| Seed | 101 | 102 | 102 | 101 |
| Residual | -4 | 1 | 19 | 25 |
| Use, Total | 4504 | 4464 | 4355 | 4411 |
| Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 215 | 335 |
| % Use | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.6% |
| USDA May 2023 old crop estimates / new crop Projections | ||||
Utilization
- The USDA’s forecast for soybean utilization in 2023/2024 is based on a number of factors, including:
-
- A strong demand for soybeans from domestic buyers.
- An increase in soybean meal exports, which are expected to reach 15 million tons in 2023/2024.
- A slight increase in soybean oil exports. Strong domestic soybean oil food & fuel use have crowded out soybean oil export buyers in recent years.
- US soybean exports are expected to decline due to the large Brazilian soybean crop in 2023 and the prospect of an even larger crop in 2024.
Economic value
The accompanying scatter studies displays the high and low for November soybeans during the summer-fall period as a function of the US soybean carryout as a percent of crop year usage. The calculation is based on USDA’s soybean crop year production – usage assessment at the end of harvest. The studies provide “what if “ tools to base decisions assuming various weather scenarios.
Based on the USDA’s May soybean US soybean supply/usage balance the November soybean contract would make a high between $12 & $13. Lows for the same soybean contract would be expected at less than $10 per bushel.