USDA Juggles Soybean Estimates

The USDA cut the 2019/20 soybean export estimate this month but increased the crush assessment. Competition from the big South American soybean crop is reducing old export  prospects.

 U.S. soybean processors have benefited from increased soybean meal disappearance and stronger soybean oil exports. The crush would be stronger but for the drop in soybean oil used in biodiesel.

Soybeans in the residual calculation dropped to only five million bushels this month.  In the past the USDA has revised up the old crop soybean production estimate when the residual data is small. But the revision will likely be made this fall.

Reduced exports and residual estimates result in a old crop  carryout estimate of 480 million bushels compared to the 425 million bushel estimate made last month and 913 million bushels last year

USDA will issue the first US soybean supply/usage balance estimate for the 2020/2021 season next month. We discussed  new crop production prospects in a previous post.