USDA issues fractional Changes in Soybean Supply/Usage Balance & a harvest Low Timing study.
USDA made only a slight revision in the US soybean 2024 soybean production estimate this month and retained a 550 million bushel projection for the 2024/25 US soybean carryout. We have computed correlation and standard error estimates for three major components of the balance table, production crush and exports, based on first difference data for the last 50 years and plugged the results in with the balance table.
The largest standard error is for the US soybean export projection. An expected large South American soybean crop (harvest February 2025 through June 2025) and large soybean beginning inventories in China (the world’s leading soybean importer) will limit US soybean export demand this crop year barring a significant crop problem in Brazil and/or Argentina.
| US Soybean S/D (Million acres /Bushels) | Correlation | Standard | ||||
| 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | R2 | Error | |
| Area Planted | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | ||
| Area Harvested | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.3 | ||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 53.1 | ||
| Beginning Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | ||
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,582 | 95% | 74 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 21 | 15 | ||
| Supply, Total | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,939 | ||
| Crushings | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,287 | 2,425 | 61% | 51 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,850 | 56% | 114 |
| Seed | 102 | 75 | 78 | 78 | ||
| Residual | 5 | 39 | 45 | 36 | ||
| Use, Total | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,389 | ||
| Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 342 | 550 | ||
| % Use | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 12.6% | ||
| Avg. Farm Price ($/Bu.) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.80 | ||
We have also included a timing study for cash soybeans showing the month the harvest (defined as September through December) low was reached and the low in $/bushel.
| Central Ill. Cash Soybeans Timing of a Low | ||||
| Year | September | October | November | December |
| 1992 | $5.12 | |||
| 1993 | $5.80 | |||
| 1994 | $5.00 | |||
| 1995 | $6.02 | |||
| 1996 | $6.58 | |||
| 1997 | $6.09 | |||
| 1998 | $4.88 | |||
| 1999 | $4.35 | |||
| 2000 | $4.42 | |||
| 2001 | $3.98 | |||
| 2002 | $5.01 | |||
| 2003 | $5.88 | |||
| 2004 | $4.80 | |||
| 2005 | $5.15 | |||
| 2006 | $5.04 | |||
| 2007 | $8.26 | |||
| 2008 | $7.60 | |||
| 2009 | $8.72 | |||
| 2010 | $10.00 | |||
| 2011 | $10.80 | |||
| 2012 | $13.71 | |||
| 2013 | $12.43 | |||
| 2014 | $8.82 | |||
| 2015 | $8.42 | |||
| 2016 | $9.12 | |||
| 2017 | $9.11 | |||
| 2018 | $7.45 | |||
| 2019 | $8.16 | |||
| 2020 | $9.36 | |||
| 2021 | $11.57 | |||
| 2022 | $13.16 | |||
| 2023 | $12.10 | |||