USDA Increases US Pork production forecast
USDA upped the assessment of US pork production over the next 18 months. US farmers increased hog production efficiency, as measured by the number of pigs saved per litter, by 3% during the first half of 2024 compared to an average 1% per annum in the preceding 5 years.
US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) | 2024/2023 | 2025/2024 | |||||
4Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change | % Change |
Beg Stock | 467 | 446 | 504 | 471 | 460 | ||
Production | 27,690 | 27,009 | 27,316 | 28154 | 28,565 | 3% | 1% |
Imports | 904 | 1,344 | 1,143 | 1213 | 1,230 | 6% | 1% |
Exports | 7,026 | 6,338 | 6,818 | 7247 | 7,615 | 6% | 5% |
End Stocks | 446 | 504 | 471 | 460 | 475 | -2% | 3% |
Per Cap | 51.1 | 51.1 | 50.2 | 51 | 50.7 | 2% | -1% |
Farm Price | $68 | $73 | $63 | $61 | $60 | -2% | -2% |
USDA July 2024 Data |
We have included scatter studies for December lean hog futures prices as a function of US domestic per capita pork supplies. The latest USDA data suggest a $50 to $70 late summer autumn range for the December 2024 contract. A December contract forecast based on the seasonal trend over the last 40+ years would result in a tighter range of $54 to $68.