USDA Increases US Pork production forecast

Published by David Tedrow on

USDA upped the assessment of US pork production over the next 18 months. US farmers  increased hog production efficiency, as measured by the number of pigs saved per litter, by 3% during the first half of 2024  compared to an average 1% per annum in the preceding 5 years. 

US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) 2024/2023 2025/2024
4Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change % Change
Beg Stock 467 446 504 471 460
Production 27,690 27,009 27,316 28154 28,565 3% 1%
Imports 904 1,344 1,143 1213 1,230 6% 1%
Exports 7,026 6,338 6,818 7247 7,615 6% 5%
End Stocks 446 504 471 460 475 -2% 3%
Per Cap 51.1 51.1 50.2 51 50.7 2% -1%
Farm Price $68 $73 $63 $61 $60 -2% -2%
USDA July 2024 Data

We have included scatter studies for December lean hog futures prices as a function of US domestic per capita pork supplies. The latest USDA data suggest a $50 to $70 late summer autumn range for the December 2024 contract. A December contract forecast based on the seasonal trend over the last 40+ years would result in a tighter range of $54 to $68.

Categories: Livestock