USDA Increases US Harvested Wheat Area Estimate
USDA made a minor upward adjustment to the 2024 US wheat planted area estimate as a result of the June area survey and a more meaningful increase in the 2024 harvested wheat acres forecast. Assuming USDA wheat usage and yield estimates published earlier this month, the 2024/25 crop year carryout would increase to nearly 800 million bushels or 41% of crop year usage. In the past 20 Years, the US wheat carryout has averaged 32% of crop year usage.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | |||||
| Crop Years | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 June 30 |
| Planted | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 47.5 | 47.2 |
| Harvested | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 | 38.0 | 38.7 |
| Yield | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 49.4 | 49.4 |
| Carryin | 845 | 674 | 570 | 688 | 688 |
| Prod | 1646 | 1650 | 1812 | 1875 | 1913 |
| Imports | 96 | 122 | 140 | 120 | 120 |
| Supply | 2588 | 2446 | 2522 | 2682 | 2721 |
| Food | 971 | 973 | 960 | 962 | 962 |
| Seed | 58 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 62 |
| Feed | 88 | 77 | 90 | 100 | 100 |
| Domestic | 1117 | 1118 | 1114 | 1124 | 1124 |
| Exports | 796 | 759 | 720 | 800 | 800 |
| Total | 1913 | 1876 | 1834 | 1924 | 1924 |
| Carryout | 674 | 570 | 688 | 758 | 797 |
| Farm $/Bu. | $7.63 | $8.83 | $7.00 | $6.50 | $6.50 |
| Carryout%use | 35.2% | 30.4% | 37.5% | 39.4% | 41.4% |
| Based on USDA Data Available 6/30/2024 | |||||
December Chicago wheat futures prices have declined more than advanced in 75% of years since 1970 in which USDA forecast an increase in wheat US wheat carryout stocks in the early autumn months. The major bullish hazard is a row crop weather market this summer.