USDA Increases Beef Production Estimate – 04/10/2021

USDA has increased the US beef production estimate in each of the last four months. Feedlot managers have operated at a higher percentage of capacity since last autumn than might be expected considering the cost of feed and the number of feeder cattle available. But an increase in net beef exports will likely keep U.S. domestic per capita beef supplies under the year earlier level through the end of the year.

We have scattered the average price of Midwest steers as a function of the per capita domestic beef supply for the July September period. The August futures is presently trading about $8/cwt. premium to  the current USDA to the third quarter price  forecast.