USDA has forecast a significant Surplus in US Soybean Production in 2024/25
The USDA’s May 10th report projected an increase in soybean supplies and ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year. This is due to both higher expected production and larger beginning stocks. Despite a projected rise in domestic soybean crushing, stockpiles are still expected to climb to 445 million bushels, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio above 10% for the first time in five years. This outlook for ample supply contributed to a flat price forecast for soybeans.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | ||||
| 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | |
| Area Planted | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 86.5 |
| Area Harvested | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.4 | 85.6 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 52.0 |
| Beginning Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 340 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,165 | 4,450 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 25 | 15 |
| Supply, Total | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,454 | 4,805 |
| Crushings | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,300 | 2,425 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,992 | 1,700 | 1,825 |
| Seed | 102 | 97 | 77 | 78 |
| Residual | 5 | 4 | 37 | 32 |
| Use, Total | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,114 | 4,360 |
| Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 340 | 445 |
| % Use | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.55 | $11.20 |
| USDA May, 2024 Data | ||||
The accompanying scatter studies display the autumn high and low for the November soybean contract as a function of the US soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage.. The point for 2024 is based on the USDA’s May 2024 US supply/demand forecast and the close for the November soybean contract on May 14.
New crop soybean futures contracts are trading high on the scatter as traders have bid a $1 to $2 weather market risk premium into the value.