USDA projects a 5% year over year decline in US beef production in 2025 with the steepest reduction occurring in the second half of the year. April live cattle futures are already trading near the USDA projected winter/spring high. Tight feeder cattle supplies, and the outlook for tightening beef supplies this summer and autumn, is likely to support nearby live cattle futures at levels at a premium to what would usually be expected relative to the USDA price projection.
US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds)
2024/2023
2025/2024
Annual
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
% Change
% Change
Beg Stock
716
676
723
638
620
Production
28,007
28,358
27,032
27,102
25,732
0%
-5%
Imports
3,375
3,391
3,727
4,588
4,710
23%
3%
Exports
3,447
3,536
3,038
2,960
2,595
-3%
-12%
End Stocks
676
723
638
620
580
-3%
-6%
Per Cap Use
58.9
59.1
58.1
59.7
57.6
3%
-4%
Finish Cattle $
$122
$144
$176
$187
$191
6%
2%
April Live Cattle Futures Contract, 2025 Based on USDA Cash Forecast.
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