USDA Forecasts Small Surplus in US Corn Production for 2024/2025 Crop Year
USDA has projected the US corn crop harvested this autumn at 14.87 billion bushels compared to forecasted 2024/25 crop year usage of 14.80 billion bushels. Except for planted US corn acreage, which is based on the March Prospective Planting report, USDA’s projected US corn supply/usage balance 2024/25 table is based on historical trends.
In the spring, corn yield is always the major unknown in the corn market outlook. USDA’s yield projection is in line with previous years provided summer Corn Belt weather is close to normal. We note the USDA’s corn yield forecast, as is that of our model, exceeds the current record which adds an additional element of uncertainty when projecting dependent variables outside the historical data range..
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | ||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
| USDA May | USDA May | |||
| Area Planted | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.0 |
| Area Harvested | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.1 |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 181.0 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 2,022 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,342 | 14,860 |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 25 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,727 | 16,907 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,487 | 5,700 | 5,750 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,855 | 6,855 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,450 | 5,450 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,427 | 12,045 | 12,555 | 12,605 |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,661 | 2,150 | 2,200 |
| Use, Total | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,705 | 14,805 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 2,022 | 2,102 |
| Carryout/Usage* | 15% | 17% | 22% | 23% |
| May 2024 USDA data. *Carryout % Usage excluding feed residual usage. | ||||
We have included charts on feed usage and exports. Feed usage is the most price elastic of the usage categories and the consumption which is most easily price rationed should summer of 2024 produce a short crop. US corn exports are dependent on production in major corn consumers or in competing foreign countries. USDA has projected a fractional decline in world corn imports in the 2024/25 crop year but that could change if China, in some years a major buyer of US corn, were to have a short corn crop this fall.
The accompanying scatter study uses corn price at farm level as a function of the ratio of US corn carryout stocks to crop year usage excluding feed/residual disappearance. Note that USDA;s partially estimated 2023/24 and projected 2024/25 points are in line with the function established in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years. Dropping the yield assumption to 170 bushels per harvested acre would result in a 13.2% stocks usage ratio (assuming usage at the USDA”s May 2024 projections) which would suggest a farm price in the $6 to $7 range. A 170 national average corn yield forecast would require an end of season US corn crop condition index at least 30% less than the 1985-2023 median.