USDA Forecasts Modest increase in New Crop US Corn Stocks
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA, released in June 2024, paints a generally positive picture for the U.S. corn industry. Here are some key takeaways:
- Production: The USDA maintained its forecast for “new crop” corn production at 14.86 billion bushels, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre harvested across 90 million planted and 82 harvested acres.
- Demand: Total U.S. corn use is projected to rise slightly year-over-year, driven by higher domestic use and exports. Feed and residual use is expected to increase due to larger supplies and anticipated lower prices. Ethanol use is forecast to remain steady at 5.45 billion bushels.
- Exports: U.S. corn exports are projected to reach 2.2 billion bushels in 2024/25, a 50 million bushel increase from the previous year. This is due in part to a combined export reduction from competitors Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. Crop conditions in China bear special attention as this nation has imported as much as 1650 million bushels of corn and sorghum (2021/22 crop year). The U.S. is poised to remain the world’s top corn exporter.
- Prices: The season average farm price for U.S. corn in 2024-25 is forecast to be $4.40 per bushel.
- Ending Stocks: With supply projected to outpace demand, corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to climb to 2.102 billion bushels, the highest level since 2018/19.
The 2024 US corn crop is off to above average start as measured by a US corn crop index of 74 on June 9 which compares with the previous 30-year early June average of 68. The critical heart of the US Corn Belt growing season runs from mid June through early August. Historically early June corn crop condition accounts for just 8% of the variation in the final index in published late August.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | ||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
| USDA June | USDA June | |||
| Area Planted | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.0 |
| Area Harvested | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.1 |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 181.0 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 2,022 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,342 | 14,860 |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 25 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,727 | 16,907 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,700 | 5,750 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,855 | 6,855 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,450 | 5,450 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,427 | 12,045 | 12,555 | 12,605 |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,661 | 2,150 | 2,200 |
| Use, Total | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,705 | 14,805 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 2,022 | 2,102 |
| Carryout/Usage* | 15% | 17% | 22% | 23% |
| June 2024 USDA data. *Carryout % Usage excluding feed residual usage. | ||||
We have included a scatter chart with the average price of corn at farm level as a function of the US corn carryout as a percent of crop year usage excluding feed residual use. The points marked 24 (green) and 25 (red) are USDA’s June 2024 forecast.