USDA Forecasts Modest Increase in Corn Carryout Stocks
USDA cut the US corn production estimate this month but made only fractional changes to crop year 2024/25 usage projections. USDA maintained a $4.10 average price at farm level for the 2024/25 crop year. Cash corn was trading just under $4.00 on 11/12/24. A linear model regressing the high and low range for May corn futures prices and the season average at farm level suggests a range between $3.99 and $4.92 assuming a season average at farm level of $4.10.
| US Corn Supply/Usage (Million Bushels & Acres) | |||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/2024 | |
| 11/8/24 | 11/8/24 | Percent | |||
| Area Planted | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 91 | -4% |
| Area Harvested | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 83 | -4% |
| Yield / Harv. Ac. | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 183 | 3% |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 29% |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 15,143 | -1% |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | -11% |
| Supply, Total | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,928 | |
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,807 | 5,825 | 0% |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,869 | 6,840 | 0% |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,450 | -1% |
| Domestic, Total | 12,427 | 12,044 | 12,676 | 12,665 | 0% |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,325 | 1% |
| Use, Total | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,969 | 14,990 | 0% |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 1,938 | 10% |
| Carryout/Usage* | 9% | 10% | 12% | 13% | |
| Farm Price | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.10 | -10% |
| May Corn Futures Winter Spring Price Range | |||||
| High | $8.27 | $6.86 | $4.63 | $4.92 | |
| Low | $5.90 | $6.07 | $4.09 | $3.99 | |
| November 2024 USDA data. *Carryout % FSI + Exports+ Feed | |||||
May 2025 corn futures were trading at $4.45 on November 13, 2024.
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