USDA Forecasts Increase in US Pork Production
USDA has projected a 2% increase in US pork production in 2025. According to USDA US net pork exports will increase again in 2025 and moderate the quantity of pork available for domestic consumption in 2025.
USDA January/March 2025 Live hog price forecast suggests February2025 hogs on the CME are trading near the expected winter high. We performed a linear regression on the Futures – cash historical relationship to derive a February live hog futures forecast from USDA’s cash projection. The Futures/Cash model has a standard error of $5.50 per hundredweight.
| US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) | 2024/2023 | 2025/2024 | |||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 467 | 446 | 504 | 471 | 445 | ||
| Production | 27,690 | 27,009 | 27,316 | 27873 | 28,415 | 2% | 2% |
| Imports | 904 | 1,344 | 1,143 | 1167 | 1,190 | 2% | 2% |
| Exports | 7,026 | 6,338 | 6,818 | 7153 | 7,355 | 5% | 3% |
| End Stocks | 446 | 504 | 471 | 445 | 445 | -6% | 0% |
| Per Cap | 51.1 | 51.1 | 50.2 | 50.5 | 51.0 | 1% | 1% |
| Farm Price | $68 | $73 | $63 | $61 | $59 | -3% | -3% |
| USDA November 2024 Data | |||||||
| February CME Lean hog Futures Winter Price Range | |||||||
| High | $74 | $92 | $92 | $77 | $85 | ||
| Low | $63 | $75 | $74 | $65 | $72 | ||