USDA Forecasts Drop in Soybean Meal Price
USDA projected a nearly 20% cut in the average price of soybean meal during the 2024/2025 crop year. Stiff competition from Southern Hemisphere soybean producers accounts for the bearish outlook for soybean meal despite the prospect for very strong usage in 2024/25.
The soybean planted area and production is expected to expand in Brazil and Argentina this season with the Brazilian crop alone totaling 140% of the US 2024 crop. But the South American crop is still in the early phase of growth and vulnerable to dry weather.
We have run a linear regression with the winter price range for March soybean meal futures as the dependent variable and the season average price as the independent variable. The USDA’s $320 season average forecast is associated with the winter price range for March soybean meal futures of $273 to $340. The study has a standard error of $25 per ton.
| US Soybean Meal Balance (Thousand Tons) | |||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025%2024 | |
| Beginning Stocks | 341 | 311 | 371 | 453 | |
| Production | 51,814 | 52,493 | 54,145 | 56,747 | 5% |
| Imports | 649 | 634 | 687 | 675 | -2% |
| Supply, Total | 52,804 | 53,438 | 55,204 | 57,875 | 5% |
| Domestic Disappearance | 38,970 | 38,521 | 38,643 | 40,025 | 4% |
| Exports | 13,524 | 14,547 | 16,107 | 17,400 | 8% |
| Use, Total | 52,493 | 53,067 | 54,750 | 57,425 | 5% |
| Ending Stocks | 311 | 371 | 453 | 450 | |
| Crush (Million Bushels) November 2024 USDA Data | |||||
| Oct/Sept | 2,207 | 2,219 | 2,299 | 2,410 | 5% |
| Meal Yield | 47.0 | 47.3 | 47.1 | 47.1 | |
| Avg. Price ($/s.t.) | $440 | $452 | $384 | $320 | -17% |
| March Soybean Meal Futures $/Ton (Winter Price Range) | |||||
| High | $525 | $511 | $437 | $340 | |
| Low | $338 | $396 | $327 | $273 | |