USDA Expects sharp Drop in US Beef Production in 2025
USDA has forecast a 3% reduction in US beef production next year. Fewer cattle marketed in 2025 will be partially offset by heavier sale weights . Costly feeder cattle and cheap feed grains and protein feeds favor the heavier market weight strategy.
We have included historical ranges for February live cattle CME futures and a 2025 forecast range based on USDA’s cash cattle price forecast published this month.
| US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds) | 2024/2023 | 2025/2024 | |||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 716 | 676 | 723 | 638 | 610 | ||
| Production | 28,007 | 28,358 | 27,032 | 27,092 | 26,347 | 0% | -3% |
| Imports | 3,375 | 3,391 | 3,727 | 4,508 | 4,515 | 21% | 0% |
| Exports | 3,447 | 3,536 | 3,038 | 2,960 | 2,700 | -3% | -9% |
| End Stocks | 676 | 723 | 638 | 610 | 580 | -4% | -5% |
| Per Cap Use | 58.9 | 59.1 | 58.1 | 59.5 | 58.2 | 2% | -2% |
| Finish Cattle $ | $122 | $144 | $176 | $187 | $188 | 6% | 1% |
| February Live Cattle Futures Contract, 2025 Based on USDA Cash Forecast. | |||||||
| Winter High | $118 | $144 | $162 | $185 | $190 | ||
| Winter Low | $109 | $135 | $152 | $162 | $170 | ||
| USDA November 2024 Data | |||||||