USDA Drops Soybean Planted Area From March but keeps Projection Greater Than A Year Ago
USDA’ June acreage survey found US farmers planting 86 million acres of soybeans in 2024. The June survey is 400 thousand acres less than the March survey forecast, but still greater than the US soybean area in 2023.
The modest reduction in soybean acres from March reduces the expected new crop US soybean carryover stocks, but the prospective 2024/2025 soybean balance sheet is still tipped in favor of soybean market bears. Weather in the next six weeks will determine if USDA’s trend 2024 US soybean yield assumption will be exceeded or actual production falls well short of trend.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | WASDE | June Acreage | |||
| 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | 2024/2025 | |
| Area Planted | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 86.5 | 86.1 |
| Area Harvested | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.4 | 85.6 | 85.3 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 52.0 |
| Beginning Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 350 | 350 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,165 | 4,450 | 4,434 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 25 | 15 | 15 |
| Supply, Total | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,454 | 4,815 | 4,799 |
| Crushings | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,290 | 2,425 | 2,425 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,992 | 1,700 | 1,825 | 1,825 |
| Seed | 102 | 97 | 77 | 78 | 78 |
| Residual | 5 | 4 | 37 | 32 | 32 |
| Use, Total | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,104 | 4,360 | 4,360 |
| Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 350 | 455 | 439 |
| % Use | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.55 | $11.20 | $11.20 |
| USDA June, 2024 Data | |||||
Assuming USDA’ June 2024/25 usage projections the national average soybean yield would be required to fall under 50 bushels per harvested acre to set up a reasonable bull case for new crop soybean futures contracts.