USDA cuts US Soybean Planted Area Sharply – 6/30/2023

USDA  ‘s June area planted survey found soybean planted area at 83.5 million acres compared to the March estimate of 87.5 million acres. The 4 million acre change from March to the June census is the second largest after the 4.5 million acre loss in 2019.

Plugging the new data into USDA’s latest supply/usage table would result in a 139 million bushel carryout in the 2023/2024 crop year. In addition, USDA’s June 9, 2023 yield forecast is likely too optimistic to fit the latest weekly soybean crop data.  On June 23, 2023 the USDA rated just 51% of the US soybean crop in good/excellent condition compared to the previous 30-year average of 65% for the same week. The currently available ratings suggest a national average soybean yield of less than 50 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA’s yield projection of 52 bushels.

  Pulling the data together suggests a negative US soybean carryover in 2023/2024 unless . . . 

… The US soybean crop outlook improves substantially. The US crop is not fully made until mid August, but farmers will need some luck to make up for the unfavorable June start.

…Soybean usage is priced out of the US market. Fortunately for foreign soybean consumers there is a monster South American soybean crop in prospect which will begin harvest in March 2024. The El Nino phase of the Southern Oscillation Cycle raises the odds for a big crop in Brazil in 2024, but Southern Hemisphere planting is months away and circumstances could change.