USDA Corn Supply/Usage Report Shows Larger Crop, Lower Prices Compared to A Year Ago – 6/09/2023
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its June 9, 2023, corn supply/usage report, which showed a larger crop and lower prices for the upcoming marketing year.
The USDA’s US corn production forecast for 2023/24 maintained the May level of 15.3 billion bushels, up 11% from last year’s crop. The year over year increase was driven by higher yields, which are expected to average 181.5 bushels per acre and a 6% increase in harvested area..
The USDA also raised its corn export forecast for 2023/24 to 2.15 billion bushels, up 10% from last year. The increase was driven by assuming stronger demand from China and other countries.
Domestic corn use is expected to be unchanged from the May forecast at 12.4 billion bushels in 2023/24. This includes 5.3 billion bushels for ethanol production, 5.65 billion bushels for feed and residual use, and 1.4 billion bushels for food, seed and industrial use.
As a result of the larger crop and larger new crop carryout, the USDA lowered its season-average farm price forecast for corn to $4.80 per bushel in 2023/24. This is down from $6.60 per bushel in 2022/23.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels acres | ||||
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | |
| Area Planted | 90.7 | 93.3 | 88.6 | 92.0 |
| Area Harvested | 82.3 | 85.3 | 79.2 | 84.1 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.3 | 181.5 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,452 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,074 | 13,730 | 15,265 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,055 | 16,333 | 15,132 | 16,742 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,721 | 5,275 | 5,650 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,467 | 6,764 | 6,680 | 6,735 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,028 | 5,326 | 5,250 | 5,300 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,074 | 12,484 | 11,955 | 12,385 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,471 | 1,725 | 2,100 |
| Use, Total | 14,821 | 14,956 | 13,680 | 14,485 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,452 | 2,257 |
| Carryout/Usage* | 13% | 15% | 17% | 26% |
| * Excluding Feed Residual, June 2023 USDA Estimate & Projected New Crop | ||||
We have developed our own forecast models for the harvest price range for cash corn in Central Illinois. The graph displays our model forecast based on the USDA’s June supply/usage table. We have also calculated a table displaying the projected harvest corn price range assuming various US corn crop condition index assumptions and holding new crop usage at the USDA’s June 2023 estimate. Of course usage expectations will vary with time, but for the growing season corn futures traders will be most focused on US corn production prospects.
| Cash Corn (Cent. Ill). Harvest Price Range | ||
| Crop Index | High | Low |
| 44% | $6.46 | $4.39 |
| 59% | $5.92 | $3.99 |
| 74% | $5.66 | $3.80 |
| Assumptions for crop year 2023/2024 million bushels | ||
| Use | 14485 | |
| Beg Stocks | 1452 | |
| Imp | 25 | |
| FSI+ Exports | 8835 | |
The average end of season US corn crop index between the years 1985 and 2022 was 59% with the standard deviation as indicated in the table. USDA rated the corn crop in early June 2023 at 53% average and 11% good for a calculated index of 64%.