USDA Beef Production – Price Forecasts – 03/14/2022

USDA has increased the forecast for 2022 beef production in recent months, but beef output is still expected to fall short year over year during the last three quarters (April- December) of the forecast period. The more optimistic beef production forecast reflects the larger than normal percentage of the available feeder cattle supply  moving into feedlots this winter. 

USDA expects finished cattle prices in 2022 to average well above those of 2021 due to the dwindling supply of feeder cattle which is anticipated to restrict beef production during the last half of 2022 and the first half of 2023. The futures market’s anticipation of tighter beef supplies is reflected in the premiums paid for late 2022 and first half 2023 live cattle futures deliveries.