USDA Beef Forecasts Suggest Potential Rally in Cattle Futures Prices
USDA projects a 5% drop in US beef production in 2025 after an estimated 1% cut in 2024. The US domestic beef supply per capita in 2025 would be the tightest since 2016 based on USDA data forecasts.
December 2024 cattle futures prices have been under pressure since late winter as finished cattle supplies have been burdensome at the $195 plus market ready cattle have been fetching this summer. However, the scarcity of feeder cattle supplies projected for this fall is expected to reduce feedlot placements and take the pressure off nearby live cattle futures values.
| US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds) | 2024/2023 | 2025/2024 | |||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 716 | 676 | 723 | 638 | 610 | ||
| Production | 28,007 | 28,358 | 27,032 | 26,803 | 25,512 | -1% | -5% |
| Imports | 3,375 | 3,391 | 3,727 | 4,188 | 4,225 | 12% | 1% |
| Exports | 3,447 | 3,536 | 3,038 | 2,940 | 2,500 | -3% | -15% |
| End Stocks | 676 | 723 | 638 | 610 | 570 | -4% | -7% |
| Per Cap Use | 58.9 | 59.1 | 58.1 | 58.3 | 56.3 | 0% | -3% |
| Finish Cattle $ | $122 | $144 | $176 | $188 | $191 | 7% | 2% |
| December Cattle Futures Contract, 2024 our estimate. | |||||||
| Autumn High | $139 | $155 | $192 | $197 | |||
| Autumn Low | $125 | $146 | $162 | $172 | |||
| USDA August 2024 Data | |||||||
December 2024 live cattle closed at $178 on 8/16/2024.