US Winter Wheat Production Outlook
The USDA has scheduled the first winter wheat production estimate for the 2024 season for May 10, 2024. This week USDA rated the 2024 winter crop at 49% good or excellent compared to ratings in the mid 20 percent range in 2022 and 2023.
A model based on the correlation between US winter wheat yield and late April crop conditions suggest a yield of 51 bushels per harvested acre. The abandonment rate hit a 70+ year high in 2023. We expect substantial improvement this year with 72% of planted area harvested.
US winter wheat production would total 1.25 billion bushels based on our assumptions which. Is a modest increase over the 2023 crop.
| US Winter Wheat ( Thousand Acres / Million Bushels) | |||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Planted | 30,450 | 33,678 | 33,281 | 36,699 | 34,135 |
| Harvested | 23,024 | 24,612 | 23,454 | 24,683 | 24,577 |
| Percent | 76% | 73% | 70% | 67% | 72% |
| Yield Bu./Hr. | 50.9 | 51.9 | 47.0 | 50.6 | 51.0 |
| Production | 1,171 | 1,277 | 1,103 | 1,248 | 1253 |
| 2024 Planted area March Intentions , All other 2024 data Our estimates | |||||