US Wheat stocks to Increase but world stocks to Drop
US wheat usage is projected to increase this season owing to improved export demand and price levels that have encouraged wheat as feed and boosted food usage modestly. The US wheat carryout to crop year usage ratio, a key indicator of old crop wheat futures prices, is forecast to increase a relatively modest two percent during the June 2024/May 2025 season.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage Balance (Million Bushels) | ||||
| 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | Percent | |
| Area Planted | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | -7% |
| Area Harvested | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 4% |
| yield | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 5% |
| Beginning Stocks | 674 | 570 | 696 | |
| Production | 1650 | 1804 | 1971 | 9% |
| Imports | 122 | 138 | 125 | -9% |
| Supply, Total | 2446 | 2512 | 2793 | |
| Food | 972 | 961 | 966 | 1% |
| Seed | 68 | 62 | 62 | 0% |
| Feed and Residual | 74 | 85 | 120 | 41% |
| Domestic, Total | 1114 | 1108 | 1148 | |
| Exports | 762 | 707 | 850 | 20% |
| Use, Total | 1876 | 1815 | 1998 | 10% |
| Ending Stocks | 570 | 696 | 795 | 14% |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.60 | -20% |
| Carry/usage | 30% | 38% | 40% | |
|
May Chicago Wheat Winter/Spring Price Range
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| High | $8.46 | $6.71 | $6.89 | |
| Low | $5.96 | $5.24 | $4.96 | |
| Data based available in December 2024. | ||||
USDA projects a modest 10 million tonne reduction in world wheat stocks during the 2024/25 crop year. Tighter world wheat supplies have already boosted US wheat sales by 20% compared to very lackluster wheat export demand in 2023/2024.
Old crop Chicago wheat is trading in the bottom 25% of the projected winter/spring range assuming USDA’s December 2024 data.
Wheat futures traders will be watching the new crop wheat outlook closely beginning in the early spring 2025. The US 2025 winter wheat crop went into dormancy in average condition. Soil moisture reports suggest the crop should winter with little stress, but spring weather is a much more important winter wheat production barometer.