US Wheat Stocks Likely to build in 2024/2025
USDA has forecast another increase in US wheat carryout stocks in the 2024/25 crop year. Increased production and just a modest increase in US wheat exports are key variables in the new crop US wheat supply/usage balance.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | |||||
| Crop Years | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 |
| Planted | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 47.5 |
| Harv. | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 | 38.0 |
| Yield | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 49.4 |
| Carryin | 1028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 688 |
| Prod | 1828 | 1646 | 1650 | 1812 | 1875 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 140 | 120 |
| Supply | 2956 | 2588 | 2446 | 2522 | 2682 |
| Food | 961 | 971 | 973 | 960 | 962 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 64 | 62 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 77 | 90 | 100 |
| Domestic | 1117 | 1117 | 1118 | 1114 | 1124 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 759 | 720 | 800 |
| Total | 2111 | 1913 | 1876 | 1834 | 1924 |
| Carryout | 845 | 674 | 570 | 688 | 758 |
| Farm $/Bu. | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $7.00 | $6.50 |
| Carryout%use | 40.0% | 35.2% | 30.4% | 37.5% | 39.4% |
| Based on USDA Data Available 6/12/2024 | |||||
USDA’s mid June winter wheat and spring assessments suggest US wheat production will at least match the USDA yield assumptions used in the June WASDE report.
US wheat export sales for the 2024/2025 crop year are running ahead of the previous two years. The USDA cut the world wheat production estimate for 2024/25 by 7 million tonnes this month which adds weight to the USDA’s assumed increase in US wheat export sales.
Assuming USDA is correct in projecting a build up in US wheat stocks, we have performed a conditioned seasonal for December Chicago wheat in years in which US wheat carryout stocks increased relative to the previous year. December Chicago wheat futures prices have Declined more than advanced in 18 of 24 conditioned years. Hazard (bull) years in the study were associated with row crop weather markets. Extreme examples include the very hot summer of 1980 and the Midwest flood year of 1993.
| December Chicago Wheat Futures Prices | ||||||
| Change from mid June to July/December High and low | ||||||
| year | June 17 | High | % max | Low | % Min | Bear = X |
| 1974 | $3.98 | $5.36 | 34.7% | $4.08 | 2.5% | |
| 1975 | $3.21 | $4.67 | 45.5% | $3.14 | -2.3% | |
| 1976 | $3.80 | $4.20 | 10.5% | $2.49 | -34.5% | x |
| 1977 | $2.58 | $2.84 | 9.8% | $2.25 | -13.0% | x |
| 1980 | $4.33 | $5.45 | 25.8% | $4.11 | -5.0% | |
| 1981 | $4.48 | $4.57 | 1.8% | $3.71 | -17.2% | x |
| 1982 | $3.77 | $3.85 | 2.2% | $2.99 | -20.6% | x |
| 1984 | $3.71 | $3.76 | 1.2% | $3.38 | -8.9% | x |
| 1985 | $3.36 | $3.49 | 3.7% | $2.80 | -16.8% | x |
| 1990 | $3.48 | $3.52 | 1.1% | $2.38 | -31.7% | x |
| 1992 | $3.62 | $3.81 | 5.3% | $3.13 | -13.6% | x |
| 1993 | $2.95 | $3.70 | 25.4% | $2.98 | 1.0% | |
| 1996 | $5.11 | $5.24 | 2.6% | $3.68 | -27.9% | x |
| 1997 | $3.64 | $3.98 | 9.5% | $3.27 | -10.0% | x |
| 1998 | $3.03 | $3.08 | 1.7% | $2.51 | -17.2% | x |
| 1999 | $2.85 | $3.03 | 6.3% | $2.23 | -21.8% | x |
| 2003 | $3.31 | $4.09 | 23.6% | $3.15 | -4.8% | |
| 2005 | $3.44 | $3.68 | 7.1% | $2.93 | -14.8% | x |
| 2008 | $9.22 | $9.57 | 3.8% | $4.55 | -50.7% | x |
| 2009 | $6.21 | $5.85 | -5.8% | $4.39 | -29.3% | x |
| 2014 | $6.11 | $6.28 | 2.7% | $4.66 | -23.7% | x |
| 2015 | $5.08 | $6.09 | 19.8% | $4.51 | -11.2% | |
| 2016 | $5.10 | $4.74 | -7.2% | $3.70 | -27.6% | x |
| 2023 | $7.16 | $7.96 | 11.2% | $5.28 | -26.3% | x |
| Crop years Beginning in Which the US wheat carryout increased. | ||||||