US Wheat S/D Outlook in early July – 07/02/2022
US new crop wheat carryout stocks aren’t likely to vary much from the just completed crop year. The June Acreage report combined with the crop condition reports of late June suggest a total US wheat crop in 2022 of 1.78 billion bushels compared to the 1.65 billion bushel crop harvested in 2021. In the June WASDE report USDA forecast US wheat disappearance in June 2022/May 2023 at 1.88 billion bushels compared to the 1.93 billion bushels usage of a year earlier.
December Chicago wheat has displayed a seasonal price range of $6.90 to $9.70 based on the years 1970 through 2021.
The US wheat production outcome can still vary a bit from the current outlook, but probably not enough to impact futures prices significantly. But wheat traders must contend with the Ukraine problem and with development of the Southern Hemisphere wheat crops in the months ahead. Major changes in the US row crop outlook could also impact the wheat market. There is still time for a weather market to impact corn and indirectly wheat. Changes in the soybean S/D outlook probably won’t have much impact on wheat prices.
New crop wheat S/D projections based on data available in early July.