US wheat production set for drop in 2025
Based on the USDA’ recent March Planting Intention survey US wheat production will likely decline this season unless growing conditions prove exceptionally favorable. We project 2025 production at 1.87 billion bushels, a 5% decline from a year ago. We have 2025 projected yield and percent harvested based on the average wheat crop condition index for the years 1988 through 2024. We will begin receiving winter conditions data, probably next week, and can begin assuming 2025 weekly crop condition data as published by USDA.
The US is a much less important player in the world wheat market than in feed grains where the US dominates. Nevertheless, USDA provides a steady stream of domestic wheat production related data and the most visible price discovery markets are in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis. The result is the US wheat crop prospects can have an outsized impact on wheat price formation.
USDA has scheduled the first survey based US winter wheat production estimate of the season for May 12, 2025. The first WASDE report, including supply/demand tables for all major farm commodities for the 2025/2026 crop year, is scheduled for the same date.
| US Wheat Planted (000 acres) & Production (Million Bushels) | ||||||
| US Wheat Planted 000 acres | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Percent |
| Winter | 33,678 | 33,281 | 36,699 | 33,390 | 33,315 | 0% |
| O Spring | 11,420 | 10,855 | 11,200 | 10,705 | 10,020 | -6% |
| Durum | 1,642 | 1,633 | 1,676 | 2,064 | 2015 | -2% |
| Total | 46,740 | 47791 | 51598 | 48183 | 47375 | -2% |
| Harvested | ||||||
| Winter | 24,612 | 23,454 | 24,558 | 26,103 | 24,998 | -4% |
| O Spring | 10,165 | 10,450 | 10,985 | 10,330 | 9800 | -5% |
| Durum | 1,526 | 1,581 | 1,604 | 2,036 | 1950 | -4% |
| Total | 36,303 | 35,485 | 37,147 | 38,469 | 36,748 | -4% |
| Yield Bushels | ||||||
| Winter | 52 | 47 | 51 | 52 | 52 | 1% |
| O Spring | 33 | 46 | 46 | 53 | 50 | -5% |
| Durum | 24 | 40 | 37 | 38 | 40 | 6% |
| Total | 45 | 46 | 49 | 51 | 51 | -1% |
| Production Million Bushels | ||||||
| Winter | 1,277 | 1,103 | 1,242 | 1,349 | 1,302 | -4% |
| O Spring | 331 | 483 | 505 | 544 | 491 | -10% |
| Durum | 37 | 64 | 59 | 77 | 78 | 2% |
| Total | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,807 | 1,970 | 1,871 | -5% |
| Based on USDA data available 4/2/2025. | ||||||
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