US Wheat Outlook
Chicago wheat futures prices have been under pressure this autumn due to the outlook for an increase in old crop US wheat carryout stocks. USDA expects a modest decrease in world wheat stocks during the 2024/25 crop year. US Wheat export sales have been the best in four years this season, but sales have not been large relative to supply.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage Balance (Million Bushels) | |||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | Percent | |
| Area Planted | 46.7 | 45.7 | 49.6 | 46.1 | -7% |
| Area Harvested | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 4% |
| yield | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 5% |
| Beginning Stocks | 845 | 698 | 570 | 696 | |
| Production | 1646 | 1650 | 1804 | 1971 | 9% |
| Imports | 95 | 122 | 138 | 120 | -13% |
| Supply, Total | 2587 | 2470 | 2512 | 2788 | |
| Food | 972 | 973 | 961 | 966 | 1% |
| Seed | 58 | 68 | 62 | 62 | 0% |
| Feed and Residual | 88 | 89 | 85 | 120 | 41% |
| Domestic, Total | 1117 | 1130 | 1108 | 1148 | |
| Exports | 800 | 759 | 707 | 825 | 17% |
| Use, Total | 1917 | 1888 | 1815 | 1973 | 9% |
| Ending Stocks | 669 | 582 | 696 | 815 | 17% |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | 7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.60 | -20% |
| co/usage | 34.9% | 30.8% | 38.3% | 41.3% | |
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May Chicago Wheat Winter/Spring Price Range
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| High | $13.64 | $8.46 | $6.71 | $6.89 | |
| Low | $7.39 | $5.96 | $5.24 | $4.96 | |
| Data based available in November 2024. | |||||
The 2025/2026 US winter wheat crop has gotten off to a sub par start, but could easily recover depending on early spring weather conditions in the corn belt and southern plains states.
We have included a range forecast for Chicago wheat futures based on USDA’s 2024/25 crop year projection. It would likely take US wheat crop problems this spring to push May to the upper end of the forecast range.