US Wheat New Crop Stocks Increase with Normal Weather Assumption
US wheat carryout stocks will likely increase during the 2025/2026 crop year assuming USDA’s National average trend line wheat yield forecast. Through mid February there were winter wheat areas reporting drier than normal conditions, but the acreage affected and the severity don’t yet suggest a yield significantly below the USDA trendline value.
Spring wheat seeding will commence in early April . The national average US spring wheat yield in 2024 was well above trend as the spring wheat crop condition index at the end of the season was 25% above the 30-year average and the US spring wheat yield was 3 bushels per harvested acre above the 30-year trendline value.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | |||||
| Crop Years | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | 2025/2026 | %Change | %Change |
| Planted | 49.6 | 46.1 | 47.1 | -7% | 2% |
| Harv. | 37.1 | 38.5 | 38.7 | 4% | 1% |
| Yield | 48.7 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 5% | -2% |
| Carryin | 570 | 696 | 794 | 22% | 14% |
| Prod | 1804 | 1971 | 1939 | 9% | -2% |
| Imports | 138 | 130 | 120 | -6% | -8% |
| Supply | 2512 | 2798 | 2853 | ||
| Food | 961 | 970 | 966 | 1% | 0% |
| Seed | 62 | 64 | 62 | 3% | -3% |
| Feed | 85 | 120 | 110 | 41% | -8% |
| Domestic | 1108 | 1154 | 1138 | 4% | -1% |
| Exports | 707 | 850 | 850 | 20% | 0% |
| Total | 1815 | 2004 | 1988 | ||
| Carryout | 696 | 794 | 865 | 14% | 9% |
| Farm $/Bu. | $6.96 | $5.55 | $5.80 | -20% | 5% |
| Carryout%use | 38.35% | 39.62% | 43.50% | ||
We have added one million acres to the total US planted area to USDA’s baseline as the only survey based data we have is the January Wheat & Canola seeding survey released in early January. In that survey, the US winter wheat area was up almost one million acres from a year ago
Based on USDA baseline usage forecasts and trendline yield, the US wheat carryout stock would increase about 70 million bushels during the 2025/2026 crop year. Holding usage constant, the average national average wheat yield would need to fall two bushels per acre under trend to result in a decline in US wheat carryover stocks.
The USDA’s Baseline forecasts are just trend values, but do provide a convenient yardstick to measure prospective changes in the US wheat supply/usage balance for 2025/26.
Data point for 2026 based on USDA baseline forecast.
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