US Soybean Yield Estimate Likely to be Downgraded – 08/01/2023
USDA crop observers rated 52% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 30, 2023 which is down from the 52% with the same rating a week earlier. Historical data suggests an August estimate for the US national average soybean yield of 49 bushels/harvested acre compared to the USDA’s trendline projection of 52 bushels. The August Crop report is scheduled for release August 11, 2023.
The soybean crop cycle has several more weeks in which weather can have a significant impact on crop yield. Ratings through August will provide important information on how much yield in subsequent crop reports will vary from the August report.
US Soybean Production (Million Bushels , acres in thousands | |||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||
planted | 83,354 | 87,195 | 87,450 | 83,505 | |
Harvested | 82,603 | 86,332 | 86,336 | 82,696 | |
% | 99.1% | 99.0% | 98.7% | 99.0% | |
Production | 4,216 | 4,435 | 4,276 | 4,052 | |
Yield | 51 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 49 | |
2023 based on the June acreage and Our yield estimate | |||||
Crop Index | Trend | Intercept | |||
0.16 | 0.52 | -1009 | |||
93% | 1.79 | ||||
6 | 20 | T stats | |||
August Yield Est. = 52*.16+2023*.52-1009 |