US Soybean Oil – A forecast for the Winter / Early Spring Price Range – 12/5/2023

Last month USDA forecast the season 2023/2024 average price for deliverable soybean oil at $61 per hundredweight compared to $69 last  season and $65  in September 2021/August 2022. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter/spring high and low for deliverable soybean oil as a function of the USDA’s November season average forecast

The USDA’s $61 November 2023 forecast would suggest a range from $45 and $65. March soybean oil is trading at the low end of the forecast range. USDA could revise the soybean oil price forecast each month through the remainder of the season. Major revisions this winter would likely be linked to developments during the Southern Hemisphere soybean crop cycle 

Note the scatter point marked USDA is the USDA’s current $61 season average forecast and the close for the March soybean oil contract on 12/05/2023..