US Soybean Exports – 11/12/2023

USDA has forecast 2023/24 crop year soybean exports at 1.775 billion bushels which is at the low end of recent year’s exports. The expectation of a large South American Soybean crop (to be harvested during the early  Northern Hemisphere spring) will likely reduce demand for US soybeans.

US soybean 2023/24 export commitments totaled 22 million tonnes on November 2, down from the 32 million tonnes sold at the same point a year ago. Commitments to China, the world’s largest soybean importer, for 2023/24 are down  35% year over year as Chinese buyers prefer  to wait for new crop Southern Hemisphere soybeans. 

We have included a scatter study with US soybean crop year exports as a function of sales in early November. The USDA’s November soybean 2023/24 crop year estimate is marked in red as USDA November. We also marked the 2021/22 crop year  in which the South American crop was  disappointing in green. US soybean exports in excess of USDA’s total would likely require a significantly smaller South American the currently projected by the USDA.