US Soybean Crop Trails USDA Trend Forecast – 07/26/2022

USDA rated 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of  07/24/2022 which is slightly under the 60% same week average for the previous 30 years. The historical crop index – soybean yield association would suggest  a US national average soybean yield in 2022 of 49 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA’s July trendline forecast of 51.5 bushels. The study has an R2 of 90% and a standard error of two bushels per harvested acre.

Assuming USDA’s July new crop US soybean  demand forecast as published on July 12, the 2023 US soybean carryout would drop to near zero with a national average soybean yield of just 49 bushels. The crop moisture index  and recent precipitation suggests the US soybean crop could rally, but some improvement is needed to keep the potential new crop carryout  positive.