We calculate September US wheat stocks at 1.744 billion bushels which would be  the least since September data was available in the early 1970’s. Our estimate assumes the August US wheat production estimate which could be revised in the Small Grains Summary published in late September. 

As we discussed in an earlier post, there appears to be a basis for expecting a pickup in the export demand for US wheat. Increased demand and low inventories could at least put a bottom in wheat futures prices and perhaps spark a significant rally. 

A major hazard to higher wheat prices is the drag of possible sub $4.00 per bushel Midwest corn prices during the autumn row crop harvest. 

US Wheat Balance (June August) Million Bu.
	2020	2021	2022	2023
Beginning stocks	1,028	845	698	580
Production	1,828	1,646	1,650	1,734
Imports	30	25	33	30
Total supply	2,886	2,517	2,381	2,344
Food use	241	237	248	245
Seed use	2	1	5	4
Feed and residual use	213	255	143	186
Total domestic use	457	493	395	435
Exports	272	250	209	165
Total use	728	743	604	600
Ending stocks	2,158	1,774	1,778	1,744
2023 Our estimate.