US Pork Production projected to Increase
USDA expects pork production to increase over the next eighteen months. US Pork exports are also expected to expand, to the best level since China imported US pork in 2021 and 2022. USDA’s pork supply/demand balance sheet would project domestic per capita pork supply up significantly in 2024 but off marginally in 2025.
| US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) | |||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Beg Stock | 467 | 446 | 504 | 471 | 460 |
| Production | 27,690 | 27,009 | 27,316 | 28,119 | 28,415 |
| Imports | 904 | 1,344 | 1,143 | 1213 | 1,230 |
| Exports | 7,026 | 6,338 | 6,818 | 7362 | 7,615 |
| End Stocks | 446 | 504 | 471 | 460 | 495 |
| Per Cap | 51.1 | 51.1 | 50.2 | 50.6 | 50.3 |
| Farm Price | $68 | $73 | $63 | $61 | $60 |
| USDA June 2024 Data | |||||
The domestic per capita pork supply is a key barometer of deliverable live hog prices. USDA’s domestic supply data and the late summer-autumn price range, basis the December live hog contract, are plotted on the accompanying scatter study. Note that in recent years the December live hog contract has traded high on the study indicating an upward shift in the domestic pork demand curve. Nevertheless, the USDA’s current pork supply/usage table suggests the December contract will likely make a low significantly under last year’s low of $65/Cwt.
USDA will provide additional pork industry data in the June Hogs and Pigs report on June 27, 2024. We have provided a guesstimate for the report in an earlier post.