US Pork Production and Futures Price Range Projection
The accompanying table displays US pork production forecasts over the next six months. The farm level price forecasts are from USDA. The CME lean hog futures projections are based on a linear regression with futures high and low the dependent variable and the farm level price the in dependent variable.
| US Hog Market Data (Thousand Head/Million Pounds) | |||||
| Beg Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| End Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Percent |
| Commercial Slaughter | |||||
| OND | 33,278 | 32,133 | 33,345 | 33,875 | 1.6% |
| Jan March | 31,603 | 32,569 | 32,810 | 32,816 | 0.0% |
| Commercial Pork Production | |||||
| OND | 7,205 | 6,919 | 7,148 | 7,400 | 3.5% |
| Jan March | 6,904 | 7,071 | 7,094 | 7,110 | 0.2% |
| Commercial Weights | |||||
| OND | 217 | 215 | 214 | 218 | 1.9% |
| Jan March | 218 | 217 | 216 | 217 | 0.2% |
| Farm Price | |||||
| OND | $56 | $63 | $54 | $54 | 0.8% |
| Jan March | $66 | $55 | $55 | $54 | -1.8% |
| December CME Lean Futures October December Price Range $/Cwt. | |||||
| High | $86 | $90 | $79 | $80 | 1.3% |
| Low | $70 | $73 | $65 | $67 | 3.1% |
| February CME Lean Futures October February Price Range $/Cwt. | |||||
| High | $92 | $92 | $78 | $81 | 3.8% |
| Low | $74 | $74 | $65 | $67 | 3.1% |
| Based on USDA September 2024 Data | |||||