US New Crop Balance Tighter than USDA July forecast – 08/09/2022

This week USDA assigned 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition which is slightly below both the previous week and previous year’s level. A regression study using weekly soybean crop data for the years 1985 through 2021 suggests a national average soybean yield of 49.5 bushels per harvested acre in 2022. We have worked through the new crop US soybean balance assuming our yield data and USDA’s July forecast data for other variables. Note that with the specified  assumptions the new crop US soybean carryout could decline to less than 100 million bushels.