US March Hog Inventory May have been near Record. – 03/07/2024
We estimate the US hog herd on March 1, 2024 at 75 million head, up 2% year over year and just under the spring record recorded in March 2020. The number of hogs kept for herd maintenance on March 1 2024 was down 3% from a year ago as estimated from a balance table.
USDA appears to have underestimated the market hog inventory on December 1, 2023 as suggested by the December February slaughter data. USDA has forecast US commercial pork production will exceed 2023 levels through the remainder of the 2024 calendar year. .Our US spring hog inventory estimate fits the USDA pork production forecast as published in the February 2024 WASDE report.
| US Hog Balance December/February Million head | |||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | % Change. | |
| Dec 1 | 77.3 | 74.4 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 0% |
|
Dec/Feb Pig crop
|
32.1 | 31.9 | 32.5 | 34.1 | 5% |
| Net imports | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2% |
| Supply | 110.9 | 108.0 | 109.1 | 110.6 | |
| Slaughter | 34.2 | 31.4 | 32.2 | 33.8 | 5% |
| Residual | 2.8 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.0 | |
| March 1 | 73.9 | 72.7 | 73.6 | 74.9 | 2% |
| Breeding | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | -3% |
| Market | 67.7 | 66.6 | 67.5 | 69.0 | 2% |
| Based on Data available in early March 2024 | |||||
The March Hogs and Pigs Report is scheduled for release March 28, 2024.