US Hog Inventory Increases Modestly
The USDA’s December US hog census found the herd had grown just 1% over the last year. Hog producers plan to expand the number of sows & gilts farrowed 1% over the next six months. Improvement in hog industry efficiency was reflected in a record number of pigs saved per litter over the September 2025 through November 2025 period.
US barrow. & gilt marketings in the first half of 2025 could fall slightly on a year over basis assuming normal death loss. Our slaughter & pork production forecasts are detailed in the accompany table Data based on USDA December Hogs & Pigs report released 12/23/2024.
| US January/June Hog Slaughter Pork Production (000 Head – Million Lbs.) | |||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | Percent | |
| Market Hogs 12/1 | 68,021 | 66,966 | 68,973 | 69,841 | 101% |
| Net Imports | 3,304 | 3,310 | 3,441 | 3,500 | 102% |
| FIS Slaughter: | |||||
| B&G | 60,247 | 61,330 | 61,989 | 60,449 | 98% |
| Sows-Boars | 1,678 | 1,728 | 1,777 | 1,772 | 100% |
| Commercial Slaughter | 62,223 | 63,350 | 64,057 | 64,000 | 100% |
| Weight (Lbs.) | 218 | 216 | 216 | 216 | |
| Pork Production | 13,543 | 13,664 | 13807 | 13824 | 100% |
| 2024/2025 Our Estimate. Market Hog Data as Published in Original Survey. | |||||
USDA forecasts live hog prices at farm level based on a 51% to 52% lean carcass. USDA has forecast the January June 2025 live average cash hogs at $63 versus $60 in the year ago period. On December 24, 2024 April lean hogs were trading at $89 per hundredweight compared to the $75 to $95 January/April price range suggested by USDA’s most recent first half year cash hog price forecast.
Points marked red intersection of USDA cash forecast and our price range projection as quoted above.