US December 1 Hog Inventory Estimate – 12/07/2023
The December 1 US hog herd Inventory likely declined compared to a year earlier. The accompanying balance table displays estimates for the fall pig crop compared to slaughter which is by now known from daily data. The September November pig crop estimate assumes the September USDA planned sows farrowing survey data adjusted for the average actual farrowing compared to survey data discrepancy and a trend pigs saved per litter factor.
Our inventory data would suggest a moderately smaller US pork production estimate for 2024 than published by USDA in the November 2023 WASDE report. The December Hogs and Pigs report is scheduled for release December 22, 2023.
| US Hog Balance September/November Million head | |||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Percent | |
| September 1 | 78.1 | 74.9 | 74.1 | 74.3 | 100% |
|
Sept./Nov. Pig Crop
|
35.0 | 34.1 | 34.7 | 33.1 | 95% |
| Net Imports | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | |
| Supply | 114.4 | 110.7 | 110.4 | 109.1 | |
| Slaughter | 34.8 | 32.8 | 32.5 | 33.0 | 102% |
| Residual | 2.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | |
| December 1 | 77.3 | 74.4 | 74.8 | 73.1 | 98% |
| 2023 Our Estimate Assumes USDA Sows Farrowing Forecast published in September. | |||||
| Residual includes Death Loss and Statistical Discrepancy | |||||