US Crop Year Corn Exports – 11/11/2023

USDA increased the estimate for 2023/2024 crop year US corn exports  by 50 million bushels to 2075 million bushes this month. The US  had sold 20 million tonnes of corn  for new crop delivery by November 3, 2023 which is near the mid point of recent experience. The accompanying scatter study  displays US corn exports as a function of early November sales. We have left the data in the native million bushels for balance table exports and thousand tonnes for export sales.

The red point marked USDA displays the USDA November 2023/2024 crop year export estimate and November 3 corn export sales. The USDA estimate is in line with sales to date. Any exports in excess of USDA’s current projection will likely depend on China and/or the outcome of the Southern Hemisphere corn production cycle.

At present USDA does not appear to expect have large Chinese 2023/24 corn purchases from the US. Large sales to China would be a bullish shock, but appears to be a long shot based on current available data. The El Nino phase of the Southern oscillation cycle favors  South American crops, but a big corn crop in Argentina and/or Brazil in 2024 (crop currently being planted) is not a sure thing.